Emphasized on the travel industries of Taiwan, this study investigates the long-term and short-term dynamic relationship among the variables of travel indeices-inbound visitor and inbound revenue and macroeconomic factors-real gross domestic product (GDP) consumer price index (CPI) and exchange rate for the sample periods from 1956 through 2000. A long-term equilibrium relationship in the presence of linear trend and quadratic trend is found the Johansen’s cointegration test. Regarding the short-term interaction among those variables, Granger causality with the error correction model found that, except for the trend of exchange rate, the change of the number of inbound visitors shows a significant leading position to the trend of CPI, real GDP and inbound revenue. Besides, real GDP was found obviously preceding the inbound revenue. From impulse response function, we found that the exchange rate fluctuation were the main impulse to the number of inbound visitors in short period. However, for a longer period, the main impulses to the number of inbound visitors were replaced by real GDP and inbound revenue. Finally variance decomposition found that exchange rate and real GDP play two key roles in explanation of the variance of the number of inbound visitors no matter in short or long period, whereas it is more convincible to explain the variance of inbound revenue by the number of inbound Visitor. In view of all the above, the leading indicates that the number of inbound visitors shows significant influence on the trend of CPI, real GDP and inbound revenue. Besides, from impulse response and variance decomposition, inbound visitors and inbound revenue are found strongly responded to the shock of exchange rate and real GDP. Exchange rate and real GDP are also the main factors, which explain the fluctuation of inbound visitors and revenue.
英文關鍵字
Travel industry, Inbound visitor, Inbound revenue, Macroeconomic factor, Time series
